AMDA has established a comprehensive counter-disaster scheme, “AMDA Platform for Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Strategy” to prepare for this foreseen crisis. Surprisingly, the minutes showed that experts on the panel were strongly opposed to the methods used to calculate the probability of the Nankai Trough earthquake. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. It is utterly surprising to see that there had been discussions as far back as eight years ago on the credibility of the figures. Hence, GSJ, AIST survived the “period of nightmare” [1] of the Type 2 Basic Research. The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. But we should mention somewhere that the figure can be 20 percent if we use a different method.”. There are opinions that the time-predictable model (used in the method) is not valid at least in this subcommittee, so I’m not convinced about disclosing the figure.”. Redacted passages from minutes for the government’s Earthquake Research Committee meeting on a possible Nankai Trough quake. In Japan, the probability of a Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquake occurring in the early 21st century is high. “The probability for the Nankai Trough quake came out high because the Nankai Trough quake is getting special treatment,” he said. The last Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946 respectively. Nankai earthquake. Both events were great earthquakes … The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region. After all, true earthquake prediction requires determining the time, location, and magnitude of a quake in advance. The Earthquake Research Committee announced in May 2013 that the chance of a quake of magnitude 8 or more happening in the Nankai Trough within 30 years was between 60 and 70 percent. Predicted maximum seismic intensities from a Nankai Trough megaquake from 7, the strongest shaking on the scale, down to 3 and below. This study details an inversion method for real-time tsunami predictions using only observed offshore tsunami data. Nankai Trough megaquake predicted maximum tsunami heights. We hypothesized that the scale of the predicted Nankai Earthquake will increase gradually year by year as the time passes from the last occurrence in December 1946, and then we estimated strong motions chronologically from 2009 to 2060 for western Japan based on the up-to-date strong motion prediction method, i.e., the so-called Stochastic Green’s function method with hierarchical source heterogeneities. Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. The last Nankai was in 1946 but as it turns out, this earthquake was quite small, which means there is still a great deal of stress left to be released. Problematic? Given this likelihood, estimating the resulting tsunami in real time is desirable. In the past, the Nankai Trough has experienced repeated quakes at regular 100- to 150-year intervals. We shouldn’t call that science. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and following predictions of a Nankai megathrust earthquake have aroused great concerns on tsunami risks among the Japanese people. Uncertainty in the ground motion prediction depends on how well we know about the … This is the first in a series of investigative reports from the Chunichi Shimbun about how figures for the probability of a Nankai Trough earthquake were manipulated for a government expert panel report released in February 2018. “But how can you get (the probability rate) only by how much the land rose in the past? Sorry, but your browser needs Javascript to use this site. The red dots represent firms whose production will plummet below 40% of their production capacity before the earthquake, while the orange dots represent firms whose production will plunge into the 40 – 80% range (i.e. “The figures are inflated because of special treatment and ulterior motives.”. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. 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